Prof. Cowen notes that China’s October electricity consumption is down 4% from the previous year. I can’t think of a scenario where this doesn’t portend very bad things – there’s no way efficiency improved that much in a year. Others (those convinced that it’s not just clever redistributing, anyway – I haven’t been able to figure it all out exactly) have pointed out that the scale of China’s China-stimulus-plan indicates that the ones in charge know something the rest of us don’t. 

So what will a disaster look like? Unclear – I imagine it could get pretty ugly; there don’t appear to be large amount of resilient institutions here. If it comes to pass, I certainly plan to take a lot of strange photographs. Here’s one, Yangtze River viewed from Wuchang. Note the distinct lack of riots and starving pitchfork wielding mobs. Hoping it stays that way: