The special New Year’s Day edition of the Southern Weekend features an article titled “is GDP growth capable of ‘assuring 8′” – it contains a healthy bit of realism, something that has until now been absent from mainstream Chinese media. This is important because the SW is probably the best mainland publication you’ll find that tracks the attitudes of the political elite and business community (translation is my own, paraphrased; original follows):

… When will the Western consumption market return?  This is certainly something that we have little influence over. But in order to take advantage of this challenge, the Chinese economic system must go from “foreign reliance” to “domestic reliance,” and make this transition a priority. It will be impossible to achieve this “transmutation” within the space of one or two years. As a result, the massive 4 trillion RMB investment plan will be able to stimulate the economy, though its exact effects must still be examined. 

西方终端消费市场何时恢复？这并不掌握在我们手里。却使想借机调整中国的经济增长模式，从依靠“外需”为主改为依靠“内需”为主，并不能在一两年内完成这种“蜕变”。因此，一4万亿元为重点的巨额投资拉动经济经济的政策，何时见效，效果如何，仍待观察 。