exporters, meet cliff
From the same Southern Weekend article – the author points out that there is one ray of light in this mess:
… Since the currency exchange rate system reforms started in 2005, the RMB has appreciated 20% – but since August 2008, the US Dollar has [contrarily] began gaining strength, and [as this rarely happens] its value against the RMB rose. This is becoming the new the RMB’s near future non-pegged growth trend.
自2005年汇率体制改革以来,人民币已对美元升值约20%,但从2008年8 月始,却因美元重拾升势而出现人民币罕见的贬值,这造成人民币未来走势的不确定性增强。
Non-pegged growth trend my wind-flesh/muscle. Reading Chinese tea leaves is obviously problematic, but it’s not like we didn’t see this coming – currency controls are going to be a critical part of China’s export subsidies.
An excellent Jan 1 NYT article indicates that (accounting for inflation and currency controls) China’s exports fell by 11.2% in November alone; figures for December are “expected to be even worse.”
With regards to the 5-year every home in China has a washing machine plan, the article elucidates legal and practical difficulties for industry conversion:
Important bureaucratic obstacles also exist. Chinese factories are allowed to import equipment while paying little or no duty, provided that the equipment will be used only to produce goods for export. Obtaining approval to switch the same equipment to making goods for the domestic market can take two years and require the payment of much of the import duties that were previously avoided, a payment that many factories cannot afford.
Not quite buying that. What the law says and what is actually enforced is monumentally different, especially for something that has so rapidly become a national priority. More investigation required.
I do so enjoy it when you pan the mainstream Chinese media. How were your holidays? How’s your young lady doing? What’s new?
-Marita