So the girlfriend stayed up late to watch the Obama inauguration live. Here’s a short New Yorker bit on Chinese state media reactions. Psh. I’ve been itching all day for… You guessed it – Chinese Q4 GDP figures. It’s not exactly pretty – 6.8%, using their numbers. From RGE:

When growth is slowing down sharply the Chinese way to measure GDP is highly misleading as quarter on quarter growth may be negative while the year over year figure is positive and high because of the momentum of the previous quarters’ positive growth.

Indeed if one were to convert the 6.8% y-o-y figure in the more standard quarter over quarter annualized figure Chinese growth in Q4 would be close to zero if not negative.

Other data confirm that China was in a borderline recession in Q4 and that it may be in an outright recession in Q1: production of electricity plunged 7.9% in y-o-y basis; the Chinese PMI has been below 50 and close to 40 for five months now.

Just over a percentage point under the estimated 8% required to 建设和谐社. Those are going to be people entering the workforce without jobs. Lots of people, mostly young. Treasury holdings and electricity consumption (once the December 08 numbers come out) will be important also. Very interested to talk to migrants after the Spring Festival; assuming any return.