… is going on in China. Exports are decreasing, aggregate investment is increasing. The situation on the ground here in Wuhan seems as confusing: migrants complain that there is no work, taxi drivers complain that there are fewer clients. There is a lot of idle construction, and a lot of new construction. Many small shops are adorned with “help wanted” signs. 

Michael Pettis notes that the increases in loans could simply represent an expansion of overcapacity - the infrastructure exists to rapidly build factories and buildings, so that’s what the central government is going to keep doing. It’s believable, but there seems to be no consensus on the topic. As for the street level view, things seem much more dynamic – more shops closing and opening, more activity in general. 

Will investigate further.