us to china : ha ha.

China calls for a new global currency? Unsurprising – the people in charge here must have 馒头 sized stomach ulcers, given that the US is about to ‘deliberately attack China’s nest egg.’ From Ultimi Barbarorum

… China and the US are locked in a mutual embrace; if the Chinese don’t continue to finance the ballooning US government debt the US is screwed. If the US devalues its currency, the Chinese are screwed. We should be pleased about this; it means a destabilising global round of beggar thy neighbour devaluations is less likely, or at least the US joining in on one is. On the other hand, according to this reading China acts as a massive constraint on the Fed’s freedom of action. Savers tend to be the losers in reflations. Normally they are pretty meek, and don’t notice until it’s too late. In this case the biggest saver of all is well staffed with intelligent economists, and has tanks.

On that basis, I don’t think we can view purchases by the Fed of government agency debt as “bailing out” China; quite the reverse. It is an attack on their nest egg, the reward for years of hard work and thrift, and debasing it not a friendly act. I think the Fed knows this. Similarly, I would disagree with Felix when he says he’s “unclear on how exactly geopolitical considerations can make their way into FOMC meetings.” Fed discussions are probably more “geopolitical” right now than they’ve ever been. At least I hope they are.

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