reversing trends
Just returned from a trip to the Three Gorges. That dam is big. Pictures soon; maybe commentary on migrant workers if I can spin something coherent from the experience.
From Clusterstock, ‘The Rebound in China Is Real’ and Setser, ‘Green Shoots in China’s April Trade Data’ – both point to a reversal in China’s exports. The interesting question at this point is whether this will be the main factor contributing to China’s growth, or if increases in domestic consumption will start chipping into productive capacity that had previously been geared for exports. It seems unclear at this point. Michael Pettis also has a post regarding ‘Why do Chinese save?’ He lists most of the conventional explanations, plus a few others that aren’t commonly discussed. Yet nowhere is there a discussion of practical barriers that confront most people who live outside of Beijing, Shanghai or Guangzhou (or, 96% of Chinese). The most obvious barriers would be (reliable) power and electricity to utilize newfangled technologies, but also distribution networks for distributors. Perhaps I’m completely wrong about this, but I’d be interested to read a more rigorous analysis.