demographics as destiny

The Economist cites favorable demographics as one reason to be optimistic about Africa in the coming decades. The article notes:

… A fast-growing, economically active population provides the initial impetus to industrial production; then a supply of new workers coming from villages can, if handled properly, enable a country to become more productive. China and East Asia are the models. On some calculations, demography accounted for about a third of East Asia’s phenomenal growth over the past 30 years.

I’ve opined previously that (due to one-child) China’s situation in about 15 years becomes pretty serious. Here’s China in 1990:

ChinaPop1990

And 2030:

ChinaPop2030

For developing countries, India and Brazil have very favorable demographics. India in 2030:

India2030

Among developed countries, the U.S. has a reasonably favorable demographic situation, for all of the attention given to the baby boomer situation. For comparison, here’s the U.S. in 2030 using the same scale:

USPop2030

Data from U.S. Census Bureau International Data Base.

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