China’s biggest roadblock for continued development is its unfavorable demographic situation – in my homeland there is a concern that as baby boomers retire, the amount of young people will be insufficient to support the nation’s burgeoning ponzi-scheme Social Security System. This of course has to do with unfavorable demographics, a glut of 40/50 year olds. An eerily similar narrative exists in China that has nothing to do with post-wartime sex, and everything to do with an artificially constricted population due to China’s one child policy (1979). As a result, China’s demographic woes (‘oldification’ - 老龄化) are considerably more serious than ours, albeit with a different time frame. 

Unless official statistics are lying – there is good reason to think so. Oft-criticized patricentric traditional values, and illegal births resulting therefrom may be this country’s [demographic] salvation. But first the official story:

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As some of you may know, I recently joined the Free Market Foundation team on a field research trip to the Makuleke community near Kruger Park.  Below is the story of the Makuleke people.

Vetlee Macebele remembers her father ordering her mother and siblings to gather their belongings: they were moving to Rhodesia, he explained (current day Zimbabwe).

In 1969 the white minority government of South Africa decided to expand Kruger Park. The Makuleke community was herded onto trucks and sent 30 miles southwest outside the Punda Maria Gate at Kruger Park.

Vetlee’s family did not go to Rhodesia. Instead, they joined the community at the resettlement territory. “Each family was given one tent for 7 days,” Vetlee recalls. “After 7 days you had to build your own house.”

Almost 30 years later- following the end of apartheid government and the first democratic election in 1994- the new government returned the Kruger Park land to the Makuleke.

The Makuleke submitted a claim to the Land Claims Commission and in 1998 they were awarded 24,000 hectares within Kruger Park in addition to a discretionary grant. A 9-member Communal Property Association (CPA) was elected to hold the title deed to the land and represent the community in decision making processes. A Joint Management Board (JMB) was also formed with three members from the Makuleke and three employees of Kruger Park.

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It’s a bit of a literal translation – ‘they’re taking our jobs’ is perhaps more colloquial. “Rice bowl” in this case means source of sustenance, as in the Communist ‘iron rice bowl’ (铁饭碗) which refers to the absolute standard of living assured by the munificence of a planned economy.

Regardless, some more background on migrant workers: I found the following passage interesting (from 中国农民工题与社会保护, pp.13-14). The monthly wage for most migrant workers (in large cities) is ~1000RMB per month; I’ll post more detailed income statistics at a later point. The survey in question was conducted by the authors over a number of years, starting in the late 90s, and the most recent iteration has ~2,000 respondents. Translation is my own, original follows:

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My Fulbright Research topic was generically outlined as: “causes and consequences of rural to urban migration in central China.” This is a massive topic, and I still hope to narrow the final iteration. I’ve begun background research, and will begun to utilize this website as initially intended – a forum for posting thoughts as a record, and seeking out advice as I proceed.*

At this point, my hope is to examine how information (regarding predation) is exchanged among migrant workers, since they are subject to an asymmetry problem (work-gang bosses know far more about their work contracts than they do). If this is in fact the case, is there a low-cost way to propertize information to allow for more rapid exchange? Would doing so speed growth in regions / cities that enacted such policies? If so, someone who could forecast it could get very rich.

China at present has approximately 130 million migrant workers,** defined as ‘laborers who move from rural areas to [relatively] industrialized areas in order to work’ [this includes more industrialized, other rural areas.] China is adding 5m – 8million people to this pool every year, a rate that is growing. By 2018 most estimates put the entire migrant laborer population at 210 million people. That’s about 60% of the U.S. population, entirely as a mobile (and relatively adaptable) labor force.

I’m therefore wondering how empirically analyze labor mobility in municipal level growth – it’s possible to look at ‘number of residential permits awarded,’ but that number is obviously linked to other sources of growth, in that it would also represent a demand for labor. Regardless, if some link could be conclusively demonstrated it would serve as an excellent starting point for more directed qualitative work.

* self aggrandizing photo posts will likely continue.

** from 中国农民工问题与社会把护 (Rural-Urban Migrant Workers in China – Issues, Social, and Legal Protection).