A friend tells me that Shanghainese couples refer to male children as Construction Banks (建设银行), and female children as Merchant’s Banks (招商银行). Male children need a considerable investment since they will need a house in order to get married, despite property prices that are rapidly becoming unaffordable for all but the very rich. Daughters can simply be married off. As a result, among middle class Shanghainese, it’s becoming more popular to have daughters rather than sons, in a reversal of preferences favoring male offspring.

Sending signals for dating is a crucial part of every up-and-coming 20something’s life and finding tactful methods to demonstrate intelligence, health, wealth and interests occupies a considerable portion of our time and attention. Why else would so many young men carry around cameras and post the over-edited results online but to demonstrate their uniquely-like-everyone-else creative personalities. These and other trends are simply increasingly Byzantine ways to demonstrate SWPL cred and find the ideal SWPL partner. Rather than get caught up in the game, though, I personally try to determine how many yoga positions a young woman knows (really, the only piece of relevant information for long term relationship happiness).

This approach may not work for everyone, and in the West, it’s rather crass to simply display mate-worthy information early on in an interaction, even though there are now very cost effective ways to do so. One might imagine a dating/mating equilibrium where men and women simply exchange credit reports, a health evaluation, and personal summary. Though it certainly wouldn’t be 100% effective, it might save some time. Instead of finding more efficient ways to simplify the process, however, people seem to find increasingly obscure characteristics to focus on. As we become wealthier and have more opportunities, dating kabuki becomes even more complex. This seems to be because health and wealth become easier to provide on one’s own, and relative scarcities are then present in things like an “entertain me with conversation and impress my friends” quotient.

The Shanghainese, however, have found a way to get around some of these hoops. Every weekend in People’s Square, hundreds of people gather for China’s most famous marriage market (相亲角). Inspired by Ak47’s foray to this event, I was curious to learn of a more deterministic method to finding marital bliss, so I grabbed an equally appealing Caucasian specimen of the female variety, and we went to explore. As Z-San explains in his post, old grandchildrenless Chinese parents, with little to do with their free time (only so much majiang one can play), will search for other grandchildrenless Chinese parents, and send their children out on dates. This has become particularly important in larger cities as young people delay marriage for careers, or to save up enough to buy a house and a car (in most cases, de facto prerequisites for the ideal marriage).

This arrangement isn’t that unusual: dating here generally does seem more forward. The practice is also somewhat similar in spirit to dating websites, though the explicit focus is on basic compatibilities: height, education, and assets. As I understand it, most dating websites at least try to provide a modicum of dignity to their users, while attempting to implicitly communicate these traits. Conversely, Chinese dating websites do seem to be much more direct as well (a topic for a later post).

It seemed a more social environment for the parents; like a substitute for Church or other civil society type activities that Westerners engage in. The explicit focus on marrying-off-kid provides a mean to this end. To some extent, Church and other types of civil society activities in the West do provide forums for people to meet others with similar values. Again, not as direct:

These are fairly representative posts. The one in the middle reads: Looking for Marriage. Male. Born 1978. 1.75m, technical college graduate. 4 years of working experience in the mechanics industry, Shanghai Auto Group. Monthly salary Rmb5,000 (USD 730). Have an independent marriage house, car, no mortgage debt. Telephone no…

Most of the posts follow this format. Judging from the women’s posts with requirements, a man who doesn’t have a house and is not above 1.8m in height is janked (ie: no love for Tony). The main portion of the market itself seemed rather like a dude heavy, with 2/3 of the posts belonging to men. Regulars, however, indicated that there were in fact more women overall, and that an ideal man (Shanghai registry, owns house, tall, non-wet-paper-bag personality) is very hard to find. The salary information provided suggested that those represented at the market were above average in terms of income.

The blue sheet appears to be a harem – the marriage market, like real estate – has brokers who arrange matches. This above is one matchmaker’s stable of dozens of lonely women.

The man here has indicated requirements for his ideal mate, and was one of the few references we saw to anything other than money, assets or beauty: [looking for a woman] born after 1983. Between 1.65-1.7m in height. Graduate of a normal, full-time college. Good moral character, good health. Traditional domestic style household woman.

This was interesting also: the “especially recommended section” of the “overseas board.” Parents who are in China with children overseas will try to find other parents with children also overseas to set them up. This is an important method by which the Chinese diaspora maintains its genetic integrity, against an ever encroaching tide of yellow-fevered Caucasian sausage.

Very few of the posts have photographs, with the few exceptions being absurd cowboy hat glamour photos. Regulars indicated that most participants wouldn’t consider a prospective date who didn’t have a Shanghai or Beijing household registry (hukou). Parents complained about high house prices, since it “would take several generations contributing to paying in order to buy a wedding house for our son.” When asked about the effectiveness of the marriage market in actually finding marital matches, one man reported “about 1%.” Another indicated that it is “50% effective.”

Longitudinal panel data required to determine comparative divorce rates between match-made and non match-made couples. That, or send me your information and I’ll find you a Chinese mate… For a matchmaking fee.

Having written at length about the deterministic relationship between growth and demographics, this site (Japan Spike) provides several very photogenic examples of the results of de-urbanization / population collapse (see this graph first). Demographics are important. They even affect stock market returns (more accurately, certain demographic indicators are good proxies for other factors that affect general market performance).

The US, on the other hand, is in a very good long-term position relative to other developed nations; and stacks up reasonably well against (currently) emerging markets, in terms of demographic trends. Out of curiosity I constructed a dependency ratio projection for several countries (dependency ratio defined as [(Pop0-14+Pop65+)/Pop15-65], and is a general measure of how many resources must be used to take care of useless old people (higher ratio is worse, at least in terms of national economic health. There are probably other spillovers, as old people make great neighbors and Chess partners).

As usual, caveat projector future impossible to predict etc etc.:

This is of course assuming that there’s no world-altering singularity in 2030. It would be nice but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. Data from US Census Bureau International Database, excel file here.

Though I try not to make it a habit to vehemently disagree with Nobel Prize Winning economists on pedantic topics such as demography; this is absurd nonsense, and somehow a cover piece in FP, explaining why Europe will fall behind China in the coming decades (there are plenty of good arguments to support this case, this is not one of them):

Why are there fewer babies? One key reason is that European attitudes toward sex have evolved sharply. One-hundred fifty years ago, it was considered a sin to enjoy sex, the only legitimate purpose for which was procreation. But today, young women believe that sex is mainly a recreational activity. Behind the fertility trend is a vast cultural shift from the generation that fought in World War II, which married early and produced the great baby boom of 1945 to 1965. The easy availability of birth control and the rise of sex as recreation mean that populations are likely to shrink in many European countries… By 2040, it is likely that the natural increase will be negative in the five largest European countries, except Britain.

He then claims (without providing much of an explanation for the mechanism) that China will be free of an identical fate, a crucial objection to his argument:

Of course, China faces its own demographic nightmares, and skeptics point to many obstacles that could derail the Chinese bullet train over the next 30 years: … Although the critics have a point, these concerns are no secret to China’s leaders; in recent years, Beijing has proven quite adept in tackling problems it has set out to address…

… has Professor Fogel been anywhere near China? The problem with Europe’s future is that women believe that sex is a recreational activity? I would implore Mr. Fogel to provide his insightful analysis on how males of the species view the act (as a chore?) He completely ignores the much more explicit and informative relationship between income and fertility (though the reasons for such non-adaptive behavior still aren’t clear, Robin Hanson has a good summary of the arguments), in favor of the inductive recreational sex hypothesis. Fogel fails to mention any sort of endogeneity between cultural taboos as they relate to sex and increases in material wealth – uncertain causation – definite correlation. It would be an interesting topic to compare these social mores cross culturally and try to forecast urban fertility rates in China, where planned birth policies are being relaxed, and where population growth needs to occur.

If the recreational-sex-demographic-time-bomb hypothesis thesis is totally true, then there is little hope for urban Chinese to reverse the declining population trend, despite Fogel’s faith in the efficacy of centralized nation wide hump now! initiatives. This is primarily because young urban mainland Chinese (having determined through rigorous empirical research) very much enjoy recreational sex, and aren’t about to start popping out many babies anytime soon.

Since we’re in the land of (Nobel Prize Winning?) data-free global assertions as argument, I present photographic evidence of shameless licentious behavior (n=2):

It’s curious how non-mainland-national Chinese are treated on the mainland. They are often held to much higher standards for their language, for example. Whitie such as myself can say the equivalent of ‘HIIIII!’ and be showered with compliments; Chinese-American friends can be far more articulate and still criticized for their accent. Last year Wuhan University held an international festival to showcase international students. The only American who was willing to participate was of Chinese descent, and he was refused because he did not look “American enough.”  Strange standards. So, I asked a Chinese friend to write about her experiences. From Yilin:

Who is a Chinese American? In the minds of some of the Chinese locals I have encountered, this identity – it seems – is quite the anomaly and/or virtually nonexistent. Although I immigrated to the states at age three and have since become a naturalized American citizen AND strongly identify with my American identity, I often describe myself to locals as – hoping that they will be better able to understand my background – an ABC (American-born Chinese). Nonetheless, I am still asked a plethora of questions to the effect of, “Why do you not have blond hair? Are you mixed (these questioners often answer this themselves and conclude that I am simply not American-enough because of the ‘Chinese blood running through my veins’)? How did you learn English?” When I converse with foreign friends in American English, onlookers approach me to say, “You are a great translator.” In terms of a more negative experience, one waitress would not serve me the western-styled eggs sunny-side-up and toast breakfast because she told me, point-blank, I am my (Caucasian) travel partner’s tour guide and not a foreigner; she subsequently directed me to the 满头and 粥 table (traditional Chinese breakfast dishes). On the opposite end of the spectrum, some expat Caucasian Americans have mistaken me for a Chinese local (I acknowledge that my fluent Mandarin Chinese speaking skills partially contribute to this misconception) and ask me why my spoken American English is not packaged with a foreign accent.

How do I feel about all this? Two years ago, I would have answered with three words: anger, frustration, and confusion. For lack of a better example, in Amy Tan’s Joy Luck Club, one Chinese American character feels that she is unable to find total acceptance in both American and Chinese societies. Even in the U.S., I sometimes sense that to be considered an American one should be white (or at least non-Asian). As a case-in-point, several of my ABC colleagues have been asked – and are still asked (by Caucasians) – where they learned their American English (the implication is that it is too authentic). Another American-born friend was initially mistakenly enrolled in her elementary school’s ESL (English as a Second Language) program because she has a Chinese last name.

People who possess two such identities are sometimes referred to as the “in-betweeners.” Although I cannot claim to have achieved a completely healthy identity balance, I have learned to recognize some of these situations as learning opportunities; opportunities to reflect on myself, converse with others, and share my experiences with them so that they may understand that the Chinese American identity is not such a singularity. In China, I sometimes also feel more comfortable describing myself as an American Chinese. Finally, I am proud to have both such identities; I am proud to be an American with Chinese roots.

Most importantly, invaluable advantages as a non-foreign looking individual is that locals do not sycophantically and repeatedly compliment my Chinese speaking skills when I say 你好, and/or, if this were another lifetime and I was born a heterosexual male, tell me to 赶快找一个中国女人 (hurry and find a Chinese girlfriend).

It’s taken as an article of faith (by me, anyway) that the U.S. has a unique ability to assimilate immigrant populations, and that this will allow us to avoid the perils of geriatric descent, of the sort that is taking place in Japan at present, and will take place in W. Europe, and, to a different extent, in China. My position in evaluating this is somewhat privileged; I’ve never tried experiencing life as an immigrant in the U.S.