McKinsey Global Institute has an interesting summary of a study from early 2008 about trends in China’s urbanization – if present patterns continue, China in 2025 will have 1 billion urbanites. An exhibit (link on the right side of the summary page) allows you to compare a number of urbanization patterns with different variables (population, gdp, energy, floor space…) Current trends in population for 2025:

Research for the project would have been conducted prior to the popularization of rural reforms, which (if successful) might indicate that the “Hub and Spoke” pattern is more likely; assuming I’m reading their methodology (and the rhetoric) correctly: