McKinsey Global Institute has an interesting summary of a study from early 2008 about trends in China’s urbanization – if present patterns continue, China in 2025 will have 1 billion urbanites. An exhibit (link on the right side of the summary page) allows you to compare a number of urbanization patterns with different variables (population, gdp, energy, floor space…) Current trends in population for 2025:

Research for the project would have been conducted prior to the popularization of rural reforms, which (if successful) might indicate that the “Hub and Spoke” pattern is more likely; assuming I’m reading their methodology (and the rhetoric) correctly:

According to this report, Wuhan will be the world’s 30st largest urban area (China’s 4th largest, behind Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin) in 2020, with 9.18 million people. It’s the third fastest growing city in China. 

• 28. Bangalore – 9.92m
• 29. Chicago – 9.84m
• 30. Wuhan – 9.18m
• 31. Seoul – 8.88m
• 32. Chennai – 8.88m 

The top 10 (in 2020) are also interesting, with the obvious caveat that forecasting by simply extending current trends (without convincing reasons for doing so) can lead to erroneous conclusions. 

• 1. Tokyo – 37.28m
• 2. Mumbai – 25.97m
• 3. Delhi – 25.83m
• 4. Dhaka – 22.04m
• 5. Mexico City – 21.81m
• 6. Sao Paulo – 21.57m
• 7. Lagos – 21.51m
• 8. Jakarta – 20.77m
• 9. New York – 20.43m
• 10. Karachi – 18.94m

She’s a “street sweeper,” employed by the city to walk around and sweep up trash. The practice is simultaneously an easy way for the municipality to employ lots of people, and relatively useful in a nation where certain sanitary habits (throwing trash in a can) haven’t quite caught on as extensively as one would like. That and there are just a lot of people = lots of waste material. I salute you, trash sweeper lady, for making the streets walkable. 

I’ve been trying to take advantage of free time afforded by the holidays to do more recorded interviews; before all of the migrants go home for the Spring Festival – not quite sure what I’ll do for those three weeks. Many migrants report that the past few months have witnessed average incomes decline by about 2/3 (across all categories of employment my limited sample covers). Apparently a lot of the large concentrations I’ve been seeing is seasonal – many who have full-time jobs will also work part time as hourly laborers in an effort to earn money prior to returning home in January / February. That being said, most people interviewed also acknowledge that there are simply more migrants out than usual. 

Again, nothing really new – this post from Freakonomics ‘Where Life Revolves Around Your Cellphone, the Factory Floor, and Forged Diplomas‘ features an interview with Leslie Chang, author of Factory Girls:

A major part of the curriculum involved how to lie your way through job interviews into an office position. This ultra-pragmatism is pervasive in Chinese society today; people are less concerned with abstract notions of right and wrong than with getting things done. In economic terms, this fosters a business climate in which companies copy each others’ products, steal employees and business plans, and compete ruthlessly over tiny profit margins. But with little trust or sense of long-term planning and investment, they find it hard to grow and develop their businesses.

This system also takes an emotional toll on individuals. Everyone I knew in Dongguan had stories of being cheated and robbed and lied to, and over and over people told me, “You can only rely on yourself.” But even though this is a world marked by corruption and deceit, it is at the same time highly functional. It just functions by its own set of rules.

And another migrant picture. These particular migrants (from elsewhere in Hubei) prepare a mean bowl of  delicious Wuhan specialty sesame sauce noodle:

The world’s going to hell in a hand-basket – I haven’t been able to find much information on projections of Chinese reactions to an escalation of India-Pakistan. China’s official rhetoric for years has been extremely favorable towards Pakistan (I’ve heard locals refer to Pakistan as China’s “best ally”?) 

This member of the paramilitary People’s Armed Police (or PAP – it’s best not to engage in a smear campaign against them) doesn’t seemed worried at all about China’s export dependent economy hitting a wall, a resurgent realpolitik Russia, the threat of escalation in Israel-Palestine or potentially growing Asiatic US-India hegemony. Nope. Sparkly shoes are a priority here. 

I’ve harped about China’s potential slowdown for a while now. This is bothersome: there have been a lot more people selling weapons on the sidewalk then in months previous. Lots of weapons. Mind you, the wares consist mostly of night-sticks, knives, and pellet guns. So is there a seasonal arms trade in central China? Or are people preparing for riots? 

Probably just a pre-Christmas arms bazaar.