Research for the project would have been conducted prior to the popularization of rural reforms, which (if successful) might indicate that the “Hub and Spoke” pattern is more likely; assuming I’m reading their methodology (and the rhetoric) correctly:

• 28. Bangalore – 9.92m
• 29. Chicago – 9.84m
• 30. Wuhan – 9.18m
• 31. Seoul – 8.88m
• 32. Chennai – 8.88m 

The top 10 (in 2020) are also interesting, with the obvious caveat that forecasting by simply extending current trends (without convincing reasons for doing so) can lead to erroneous conclusions. 

• 1. Tokyo – 37.28m
• 2. Mumbai – 25.97m
• 3. Delhi – 25.83m
• 4. Dhaka – 22.04m
• 5. Mexico City – 21.81m
• 6. Sao Paulo – 21.57m
• 7. Lagos – 21.51m
• 8. Jakarta – 20.77m
• 9. New York – 20.43m
• 10. Karachi – 18.94m

Again, nothing really new – this post from Freakonomics ‘Where Life Revolves Around Your Cellphone, the Factory Floor, and Forged Diplomas‘ features an interview with Leslie Chang, author of Factory Girls:

A major part of the curriculum involved how to lie your way through job interviews into an office position. This ultra-pragmatism is pervasive in Chinese society today; people are less concerned with abstract notions of right and wrong than with getting things done. In economic terms, this fosters a business climate in which companies copy each others’ products, steal employees and business plans, and compete ruthlessly over tiny profit margins. But with little trust or sense of long-term planning and investment, they find it hard to grow and develop their businesses.

This system also takes an emotional toll on individuals. Everyone I knew in Dongguan had stories of being cheated and robbed and lied to, and over and over people told me, “You can only rely on yourself.” But even though this is a world marked by corruption and deceit, it is at the same time highly functional. It just functions by its own set of rules.

And another migrant picture. These particular migrants (from elsewhere in Hubei) prepare a mean bowl of  delicious Wuhan specialty sesame sauce noodle:

This member of the paramilitary People’s Armed Police (or PAP – it’s best not to engage in a smear campaign against them) doesn’t seemed worried at all about China’s export dependent economy hitting a wall, a resurgent realpolitik Russia, the threat of escalation in Israel-Palestine or potentially growing Asiatic US-India hegemony. Nope. Sparkly shoes are a priority here. 

Probably just a pre-Christmas arms bazaar.

Picture taking has been light as of the last two weeks. I’ve either had flu + pollution or meningitis. Thinking it’s not the latter.

This is new also – a guy who has set up four Xiangqi boards with various asymmetrical scenarios (like starting the game using only half of the pieces, or something else absurdly difficult). He challenges would be customers to beat him. He’s also playing a game of poker on the side.

Totally unrelated, the world needs more headlines like this: ‘Indian Navy Sinks Pirate Mothership‘ – India has a navy? Pirate mothership!? I can’t decide whether to make an obscure Haldeman reference, talk about George Clinton… The possibilities are endless: yes the world does need a U.N. Navy Police Force, to lay the foundations for the Pan-Terra Orbit Authority. Just saying.

So what will a disaster look like? Unclear – I imagine it could get pretty ugly; there don’t appear to be large amount of resilient institutions here. If it comes to pass, I certainly plan to take a lot of strange photographs. Here’s one, Yangtze River viewed from Wuchang. Note the distinct lack of riots and starving pitchfork wielding mobs. Hoping it stays that way: